Presumptive Democrat Loses
"Best Seventy Million Bloomberg Ever Spent"
"Democrats don't lose mayoral races unless there is a particularly bad
Democratic administration and an attractive challenger, about every 30
years." That urban legend should finally be put to rest. In the 30
elections since the consolidation of greater New York City in 1897, the
Democrats have five wins and five losses in the last 10 elections, six wins and
four losses in the middle 10, and eight wins and two losses in the first 10
elections.
In light of that, for Mark Green to have considered himself the presumptive
mayor of New York defies logic. His, "I don't need you to win, I need you
to govern," remark to minority leaders was absurd. And it was the moment
when the campaign turned.
Most commentators, pundits and even the players on both sides assumed Green
was going to win. The venerable elector-of-mayors, David Garth, reportedly
believed as late as the Wednesday before the election that his client,
Bloomberg, was going down by five points. The difference is that Green presumed
after the runoff that he would win and his campaign suffered for it, while Team
Bloomberg from the beginning of the campaign to Election Day looked for every
opening to gain him votes.
The Board of Elections lists about 2.4 million Democrats in New York City and
400,000 Republicans registered to vote. (In both parties there are people on the
voter rolls who have died, moved out of state, or moved inside the city but
registered as new voters rather than moving their registration so they appear
twice.) There are really about 2 million Democrats and 350, 000 Republicans. In
a general election, about half of the members of each party show up and the
balance of voters are members of minor parties and those not enrolled in a party
("blanks" in the trade).
The Democrats should win, but they don't and recently it has been a 50-50
shot. The percentage of Democrats, Republicans and blanks that turns out in an
election usually determines the outcome. If everyone voted, candidates would
spend a lot more time offering details on how they would actually govern. While
still a propaganda campaign, there would be less time spent on ethnic political
maneuvering.
When Republicans vote, they stay together as a group, dependably supporting
their party's candidate. And Republicans in New York rarely have contested
primaries. On the Democratic side it is much different.
There are all sorts of ways to dissect the Democratic electorate. Jews are
this percent, Hispanics are that percent, with subsets like Puerto Ricans and
Dominicans, for any grouping. There are also party-faithful Democrats who
regularly vote in primaries and who rarely split their ticket in November
elections.
As turnout varies by group, the percent of each group voting for the
Republican changes proportionally. In a very heavy turnout election where the
Republican is a weak candidate, that person can count on a base vote. Among
blacks, for example, it could be as low as 10% and among Hispanics it could be
20%. When the turnout in the city drops below 1.5 million votes because of a
weak Democratic candidate, those numbers can more than double.
The combined efforts of Teams Green and Bloomberg created a low turnout among
minority Democratic voters, while it raised turnout among white voters in
general. The minority voters who did show up were more likely than normal to be
ticket splitters or Republicans. Many minority Democrats who had a problem with
Green stayed home. This was particularly true of Hispanic Democrats.
About half of the 2 million Democrats are some kind of white voter --
Italian, Irish, Jewish and of other groups; of these, about half vote regularly
in general elections. About a third of these white general-election Democrats
have not voted in any Democratic primary in the last decade. These voters have
repeatedly voted for the Republican. Many regular primary Democrats have joined
them, crossing party lines in the November election when the right Republican
came along.
When Republican candidates have gone after white voters in New York City,
they have gotten their votes in large numbers, both in percentage and turnout.
Moreover, it has become increasingly apparent that Republicans can successfully
increase their candidates' Hispanic and black vote without losing white voters.
How many white Democrats are actually behavioral Republicans? Will George
Pataki get a bigger percent of white Democrats next time? Will disenchantment
with Democrats make Hispanics a swing vote in the city? More later.
