Hitting the Firewall
McCain's Looked Good Out of the Gate
But Bush Will March to the GOP Forefront
It's January in the Presidential cycle. Pollsters, media advisors, field
operatives, and Senate staffers gather in a Washington DC conference room. In a
corner the media buyer pores over polling data with a pollster.
Together they push a wild notion: bet the farm on New Hampshire. By carrying
the state with a large enough margin the candidate will get a big bounce. Here
independents can vote in either party primary and new voters can register on
Primary Day. And in a multi-candidate field, the candidate perceived to be the
Washington outsider, who is to the political left of the front-runner, can
attract those voters and win.
The campaign team jumps into action, it works, and the candidate ends up on
the cover of every major newsmagazine the following week.
Sound familiar? What I just described was a scene from Gary Hart's 1984
campaign, not John McCain’s. I know. I was Hart’s media buyer.
How political parties pick presidential candidates, an odd jury-rigged
affair, has changed in recent decades. Both parties have altered the rules to
favor the candidate with the most name recognition and early money. Political
consultants game the process to their candidate’s advantage and, McCain’s
handlers exploiting the early political calendar with military precision.
In '84, primaries were spaced farther apart and big expensive media states
came later. Now, the schedule is compressed and expensive states are holding
primaries earlier, favoring establishment candidates.
For McCain, the beginning of the primary schedule provided an opening,
especially since the front-runner acted as though there was no real opposition.
The McCain team knew that a lot of the early Republican primaries were in
economical states that allow independents—and some even Democrats—to vote in
the Republican primary.
McCain had three aces in the hole going in: a great personal story, fleshed
out in a newly released biography, former New Hampshire Senator Warren Rudman,
and the Internet. Bush missteps also helped him.
McCain’s persona got the voters’ attention, but Rudman is the real reason
McCain’s margin of victory was so big. I was on Rudman's media team for his
first Senate bid. He is an organizational powerhouse and loved by New Hampshire
voters.
In winning there, McCain spent most of his money. That’s where his third
ace, the Internet, came into play. With McCain’s huge PR bounce in the earned
media, Internet fundraising provided quick cash for paid media in states he had
neglected. The Internet money also gave "reformer" McCain cover for
the fact that he is raising so much Washington money.
February will prove to be good for McCain. The bounce already caused him to
run ahead of Steve Forbes in Delaware. And, next are three good states for
McCain; South Carolina, Michigan and his home state of Arizona.
It is always dangerous to rerun the "last campaign" and Bush must
remember that. There is no firewall in the South for George W. In Michigan and
South Carolina this year, Democrats will not hold primaries on the same day as
Republicans, and Democrat and independent voters can vote in the Republican
primaries. Partisan Democrat organizers are working Blacks, union member and the
Democrat faithful to crossover and vote against Bush in the Republican
primaries.
Go figure, what a system! Bush, who leads among Republicans everywhere, can
lose because of Democrats voting in Republican primaries, sending McCain
delegates to the Republican convention.
March, however, is another story. McCain may come in like a lion but he is
likely to leave like a lamb. The pre-convention period is about winning
delegates, not how much "the boys on the bus" like you.
On March 7, there are 602 delegates chosen from 14 states, including New York
and California—two states where Republican voters choose the delegates. The
following week, March 14, six more states with another 341 delegates are up,
including Texas and Florida where the Bush brothers are governors. March is a
logistical and financial nightmare for a candidate without a national campaign.
The real firewall for Bush, though, is New York State. Here in the
Republicans' primary only enrolled Republicans vote and they vote directly for
the delegates in each congressional district. Bush's slates are composed of
local elected officials and recognized party leaders from the voters' community.
As a result he should do well here.
McCain's success comes from selling his compelling personal story and his
support from Democrats and independents. In March, however, process and
organization count, and Bush should dominate. We will see next time.
