Two Weeks Out
Has It Become a Three Way Race for Governor?
By Joseph Mercurio
October 24, 2002
Governor George Pataki had $30 million and a 30-point lead back in mid-July and seemed inevitable. By the time the primary was over, Thomas Golisano looked threatening and state Comptroller H. Carl McCall looked like he had a chance to win.
Team Golisano has run the rare third-party candidacy that works. It diminished Pataki and stalled the McCall candidacy while increasing the spoiler's chances of winning. Now Golisano is building himself at the expense of both of his opponents.
A reader should not trust a single public poll -- given how they are conducted and how old the information is by the time it gets into print. In just the last couple of weeks, however, there have been public polls from at least six different sources, some follow-ups from recent polls from the same source. Together with leaked candidate polling, trends have become apparent.
Pataki once had a consistent 30-point lead over the Democrat and more over Golisano. That lead first dropped in half to an average of 15 points, with the incumbent falling below 50% of the vote in several polls. Now the Governor's lead has dropped to a 10-point average in the most recent polls. This is a significant decline for an incumbent who still maintains high approval and favorability ratings.
McCall during this period has stalled and there are signs that he is now dropping. He has alternately been off message, on the wrong message or not funded enough to get the correct message out. In addition the press has been busy covering terror, snipers, and Iraq -- anything but the governor's race.
McCall, as the incumbent state Comptroller, should have had been able to raise big money. Part of his current problem was weak early fundraising that failed to exploit his record, incumbency and race, despite the fact that the Governor was going in part to the same pool of donors choking funds. Post-primary, his fundraising was delayed because of Lettergate, cleverly crafted attack commercials by Team Pataki and the McCall campaign's own management problems.
Golisano has been the beneficiary. His well-managed smart message campaign first diminished Pataki with negative attacks then, while McCall faltered, Team Golisano ran a positive message to pick up voters who had drifted to "undecided." Doug Schoen's recent poll for Golisano, as reported to Michael Kramer of the Daily News, indicates that the race is becoming a three-way race with the Governor -- for the first time -- below 40%.
Pataki and Golisano have been going after white voters that the Democrat is neglecting because he does not have enough money to communicate. The Schoen poll claims that, as a result, McCall has declined among all categories of voters -- including New York City Democrats. The poll even states the hard-to-believe notion that McCall is slipping among black Democrats. It is inconceivable that McCall will fail to get a very large portion of black voters who show up, probably over 90%, but this poll could indicate lower turnout than he needs.
Now, with a barrage of negative press and broadcast commercials, the Governor's opponents have mounted an attack to close the remaining gap. At the same time, because Golisano is airing such a heavy television schedule, Pataki is paying more than expected to get his message out as the cost of spots goes up.
Surprisingly Bloomberg is not running a Republican GOTV operation in the city. And much of the existing Pataki operation has fallen apart.
Can Golisano move into second place? Will McCall's campaign turn out minority districts? Does the absence of a Pataki's field operation in New York City leave an opening for Golisano? More later.
