Forget Pataki v. McCall v. Golisano
John Faso is Closing the Gap Rapidly in the Race for Comptroller
By Joseph Mercurio
This column appeared in The New York Sun on
October 17, 2002.
After Thomas Golisano's primary win, the general election season looked full of possibilities for Team McCall. The Democrats saw Mr. Golisano as their secret weapon. They expected him to launch a big budget negative campaign that was going to cut the Governor down to size and allow H. Carl McCall to pick up steam with a positive campaign.
Instead, Team Pataki outfoxed the opposition and aired a series of smart positive spots. They also ran some effective negative commercials using Mr. McCall's own voice and image. Then came Lettergate, which threw the McCall campaign into a week of bad press and even worse damage control. The outcome was a stark increase in Mr. McCall's negatives. In Quinnipiac University's September 25 poll, Mr. McCall's favorable rating was 36%, with only 9% unfavorable. By October 16, his favorability rating fell to 30%, and his unfavorable rose to 25%.
While the two front-runners roughed each other up, Mr. Golisano aired a heavy schedule of positive television commercials. The net effect was for the spread in the race to increase to 16 points. Governor Pataki rose a point to 47%, Mr. McCall dropped 4 points to 31%, and Mr. Golisano rose 4 points to 18%. Though Mr. McCall is now winning in New York City, as Democrats traditionally have, it is only by 48% to 38%. The Governor, on the other hand, is now ahead in the suburbs by 64% to 20%.
In the Attorney General race, the news could not be better for Eliot Spitzer whose lead has increased to a safe 44 points statewide -- with Mr. Spitzer at 64% and Dora Irizarry at 20%. This is in marked contrast to the race for Attorney General four years ago when Mr. Spitzer unseated the Republican incumbent in one of the closest races in recent memory.
The race for the office of Comptroller is a different story. Here, the Republican is John Faso, an attractive, experienced candidate who gained a reputation in budget and fiscal matters as Minority Leader of the Assembly. By mounting a well-crafted, positive television campaign Mr. Faso has succeeded in fleshing out his image.
Inexplicably, Alan Hevesi, the city's Comptroller during the Giuliani years, did not take the opportunity to create a harsh, conservative image for the Republican before the voters got a chance to know him. The rose garden strategy Team Hevesi is using has conserved the Democrat's money, but Mr. Hevesi finished the latest financial filing with $2,402,050 cash on hand, about even with Mr. Faso, who has $2,355,167. And Mr. Faso was taking in funds at a faster rate than Mr. Hevesi.
Between the September 26 Quinnipiac poll and the current poll, the race has gone from a 20-point spread to a modest 8-point spread among likely voters, including "leaners." The race went from Mr. Hevesi leading Mr. Faso 50% to 30%, to Mr. Hevesi holding a lead of only 44% to 36% in just 10 days. At that rate, Mr. Faso, who is benefiting from Mr. Pataki's strength, could well pull off an upset.
Since the Quinnipiac poll was in the field, Mr. Faso began airing a very smart attack spot, featuring Mayor Giuliani, that questions Mr. Hevesi's record as the Comptroller of New York City. During the mayoral race a similar attack in the press by Mr. Giuliani significantly reduced Mr. Hevesi's favorability rating and contributed to his loss.
Mr. Hevesi has a history of starting high in the polls and then slipping. What Mr. Faso has to do is reduce Mr. Hevesi's lead in the city with negative attacks while going after suburban votes with a positive message.
Mr. Hevesi's hope is to raise enough money to outspend Mr. Faso in the expensive New York press and broadcast market to answer attacks and to put forward a positive message to maintain his lead in the city. He also needs to create an image of Mr. Faso as a movement conservative, not just on fiscal matters, but more importantly on cultural issues like a woman's right to choose.
There is a history of voters choosing a state Comptroller from a different party than their pick for Governor. This year may be an exception.
