Governor Races Dominate
The Democrats Will Pick Up Important Governor Seats, New York Race Closes
By Joseph Mercurio
October 10, 2002
The dominant conversation remains Iraq and terrorism. Voters, however, view these issues in a nonpartisan way so Republican candidates never gained a big advantage from Bush's high job approval rating.
While Beltway Democrats have been unable to nationalize the election around domestic issues, especially the economy and education, the Democratic governor candidates are doing better by pressing how outgoing Republican governors have wrecked the local economy and their states' educational system -- emphasis on outgoing Republican.
During the last decade, Republicans put more emphasis on farm teams in state legislative races and fought to pick up governor's seats. Unfortunately for them, there was a trend towards establishing term limits. As a result, of the 36 governorships up for grabs this year Republicans hold 23, and in 12 of those races their incumbent is stepping down.
The party in power is at risk in almost two thirds of the gubernatorial races -- largely the result of the poor economy, which caused declining revenues resulting in budget cuts and higher taxes. In many states this has developed into campaigns about administrative incompetence and even corruption with a good deal of incumbent fatigue resulting. This is working against Republicans who have more seats up in November.
An October surprise or last minute ripple on some issue could change things, but as it stands now expect the Democrats to pick up three seats. If the domestic agenda gains unexpected traction it could go even higher to a six-seat pickup.
Alaska has a Democrat leaving because of term limits, with the Republican in the lead as the clear favorite. The Democrat, the female Lt. Governor, is putting up a tough fight but would need a lot of Republican women and some extra breaks to win.
In Arkansas a year ago there would not have been much question of the incumbent's reelection. The Democrats even had trouble finding a candidate. A series of bad news stories changed things and the Republican is on the defensive.
The Democrats in Hawaii are confident but the Republican who got close in 1998 never stopped campaigning and is running hard.
Illinois is clearly leaning to a Democratic pickup. They are doing well everywhere including the Republican Chicago suburbs, while the Republican candidate blames the incumbent for his poll problems.
Polls in Maine have had the better-known Democrat consistently ahead so this could be a pickup for them.
The Republicans are hoping to keep the seat in Michigan but the Democrats are poised for an upset. After the primaries the Democrat was ahead 55-42. Incumbent fatigue after twelve years of Republican rule is taking a toll.
In New Mexico, term limits are causing problems for the Republicans. Though the race is tightening the Democrat still has a ten-point lead.
The Democrats think they could take back Pennsylvania. If they do, it will break the losing streak for Philadelphia mayors who have run unsuccessfully for governor for almost a century.
Two wealthy candidates are running in Rhode Island in a close race that the Democrats may win.
The governor's race in New York became a race to watch after Golisano's primary win. The well-financed Pataki Team made good use of negative campaigning and wisely rolled out Democratic union and Democratic elected official endorsements. Team McCall meanwhile suffered from lack of funds and did not respond quickly to attacks. McCall's campaign stalled and the race did not get into the low single digits spread he needed by Columbus Day.
The demographics favor the Democrat and the race can get closer. Economic issues are becoming as important as education. Despite Pataki's successes, a new poll by Blum & Weprin has a 9-point spread: Pataki 41, McCall 32, and Golisano 13. If McCall finds some money, regains his footing and get the minority vote out it could get interesting.
Will McCall show us the money? Can Golisano's attacks stall Pataki? More later.
