Joseph Mercurio on "Opposition Research: In a Competitive Race, a Candidate's Life is on Rewind"

In a Competitive Race, a Candidate's Life is on Rewind

Candidates must realize that their entire life is potentially on rewind. Good opposition research in hotly contested races is very intense and opposing campaigns can use true and relevant negative information to advantage. Wise candidate management calls for not only checking out the opposition, but also looking at your own candidate. Campaigns must be ready to respond to an attack or even inoculate against it in advance.

Voters and newspaper editorial writers claim that they do not like negative advertising. The truth is that the voters hear negative messages more easily, retain it and repeat the information more readily than a positive message. And newspapers often give news coverage and write damming editorials about the revealed facts adding weight to the attack.

Silly, sloppy and seemingly innocuous acts can be devastating if the opposition chooses an advantageous moment and presents it properly. Having third parties mount the attack can be useful but commercials also work. Getting respected people and media outlets to repeat the attack can make it fatal. If the target takes too much time to respond, the story could linger for days -- dominating coverage.

"Lettergate" is a good example. A reference letter on personal stationery that did not mention the government from a prominent figure would have been effective. The letters in question, however, required a negative response even from supporters. Newspapers carried the story and repeated it for a week during the critical time when the candidate needed to be seen at his best while scrambling to raise big money after the primary.

Team Pataki came out of Primary Day losing ground. Their candidate dropped 15 points, almost 3 points a week, and Golisano was on the ballot in November, which meant a repetition of the blistering attacks Pataki received going into the fall. Early in the year Team Pataki had built up a formidable lead so they were still ahead, but they were now in a competitive race.

The Governor's campaign also had lots of cash on hand and an experienced team who worked together in the past under central control. They assessed their candidate's condition and were ready to mount an effective campaign. They knew McCall has been a big vote getter; they also knew a third of the electorate did not know him well. Team Pataki mounted a broadcast attack against McCall to give him a negative image among those voters before Team McCall had an opportunity to put up a positive campaign. Damaging material also made its way into the hands of newspapers.

Meanwhile Team McCall was distracted by the needs of a massive fundraising effort. They were also undergoing a reorganization of their campaign's management, including the departure Hank Sheinkopf, a substantial and effective political media consultant. Their campaign's response while under attack was slow and ineffective. A two-day hit lasted an entire week. And it unfortunately played out with the background music supplied by an ethics scandal engulfing the New Jersey Democratic Senatorial campaign. It not only kept McCall off message, it undoubtedly affected his fundraising.

While Team Pataki was stalling McCall's momentum, they kept their candidate above the fray by rolling out Democratic endorsements and preparing their own inoculation against attack. One good example is the big buildup to the expected endorsement of the teachers union, which will enhance his presentation on education issues.

The race is still very competitive and closer than polls suggest. Black turnout will be higher than in previous years. And no modern winning Republican gubernatorial candidate has ever beaten his Democratic opponent in New York City. Democratic voters in the city will come home even though Pataki is running an exceptionally good campaign here. Considering how much damage Golisano can do upstate, Pataki will need to stay above forty in the city to win a third term.