Joseph Mercurio on "Trend Continues Toward McCall: Alan Hevesi and Elliot Spitzer Sweeping in Their State Races"

Alan Hevesi and Elliot Spitzer Sweeping in Their State Races

Governor Pataki's lead over H. Carl McCall has dropped again in the public polls. In the new Quinnipiac poll the spread between Pataki -- who is ahead with 46% of the vote among likely voters to McCall's 35% -- has dropped to 11 points. At the same time, Thomas Golisano moved up to 14%. In upstate urban areas the race is a nail-biter with 36% for Pataki, 32% for McCall, and 29% for Golisano.

The spread between Pataki and McCall has shrunk from a consistent 30 points all year . . . to 15 points in a Marist poll at the beginning of September . . . to only 11 points in the most recent poll. Going forward, a drop of just two points a week for Pataki could give McCall the win.

If you are a Democratic contender who has run before, you get a boost in a statewide race -- unless your opponent has a great deal of money for a large media campaign. This is proving to be true in the race for the open State Comptroller seat and for the incumbent Elliot Spitzer in the Attorney General race.

In a new Q-poll Alan Hevesi enjoys a commanding lead, 50 to 30, against state Assemblyman John Faso. As a city candidate, Hevesi, former New York City Comptroller and mayoral candidate, launched media campaigns, partially paid for with city matching funds, that gave him enormous name recognition not just in the city (which accounts for a third of the statewide vote) but also in the suburban portion of the New York market, an additional quarter of the state's voters. The city's campaign finance law gives a government-paid-for advantage to citywide candidates who later run statewide.

There was never much suspense in the Attorney General race. Spitzer has not only run before, he has received a great deal of coverage and a substantial reputation for his aggressive and competent actions as the state's lawyer. The spread in this race is a very comfortable 39 points. Spitzer is likely to move to higher office in the future based on his actions as AG and his success at the polls.

The Governor is in a two-front war. He is being forced to neglect his long-running campaign to acquire Democratic constituencies -- which has involved proposing new spending initiatives and drifting to the left in the public policy debate -- to fend off the attack on his right. This gives McCall an opportunity to grow by both increasing Democratic turnout and making an appeal to moderate-to-left voters that Pataki is being forced by Golisano to neglect.

Upstate, McCall is doing well in urban areas and Golisano has been softening up Pataki's vote generally. Golisano is doing particularly well in rural areas and in Rochester. Like Senators Schumer and Clinton, McCall is making inroads upstate because the economy and job prospects have been poor. The difference is that Golisano is also receiving votes here and increasing turnout among voters hostile to the Governor.

McCall has gained among Democrats, who now back him more than two-to-one, which is significant since Democrats outnumber Republicans five-to-three on the voter roles. As the race tightens up you can expect a much bigger Democratic turnout than the public polls project. In recent presidential, mayoral, and gubernatorial races the vote was either not close enough for some Democrats to bother to show up, or they were disgruntled and stayed home. Not this time. Expect a high turnout among Democrats.

Pataki's favorable rating has not changed much despite the pounding he has been taking. McCall has seen his favorable position improve even though his campaign has had less money and has been under attack by Team Pataki. McCall moved from 23% favorability in July to 30%, an improvement of seven points.