Joseph Mercurio on "Independence Party Consequences: With Golisano In the Race for Governor, Things Get Close and Competitive"

With Golisano In the Race for Governor, Things Get Close and Competitive

The elections in New York State have been over for more than a week and the usual post-election activities ensue. Candidates lost and candidates won. Only a few races were surprises, and some of them were close enough that counting paper could decide the outcome.

After the unofficial count, which the news media broadcasts on the evening of an election and in the days following the vote, the official counting begins. In addition to checking that all the paperwork and voting machines tallies agree, there are other ballots to count.

The first types of ballot are the emergency and affidavit ballots, which are used when there are machine breakdowns or there is a question about a voter's qualification. Next there are the absentee and military ballots. If a voter is not able to vote in their local polling place on Election Day they can apply for an absentee ballot. If they qualify, the voter receives a ballot that can be sent in.

These ballots are counted after the election, and time is allotted for their return. Sometimes, in statewide contests, only a few votes per district changes the outcome. Remember: less than one vote per district in Florida decided the last election for President of the United States. And John Kennedy became President in 1960 by just one vote per precinct in Illinois.

Now the outcome of the governor's race may ultimately hinge on less than ten votes per county in New York State. No one has a crystal ball and I do not now know who will win. But we do know that on September 10th there was a contest for the Independence Party line for the office of governor, which may have changed the outcome of the race in November.

The race for the Independence Party line generated about 20,000 votes statewide. In what was the most heavily contested party primary for any office, less people voted in the entire state than voted in the average contested Democratic state Assembly primary. The probable winner, Thomas Golisano, will receive an average of less than ten votes in each county in the state and a shot at the governor's mansion.

You do not have to believe Team Golisano's pollster who clamed that they can win a three way race (at last count, it is actually a seven way race) because the winner needs less than 34%. Golisano in the latest public poll is at only 11 points.

Golisano is unlikely to win the race for governor. He can, however, change the outcome, move the Republican and Conservative Parties to the right, and position himself as a major player in state politics. He may even become a real contender in a future race for governor.

Though he will probably take more votes away from Pataki in the end, so far he has been taking evenly from both opponents. The consequences of the negative attack against the Governor will, however, move votes away from him as his negatives rise and it will change turnout.

Voters have three options in every election: vote for a candidate, skip voting (not necessarily apathy), or cross party lines to vote for a person they would not normally support. Repeated negatives make some voters drop out and others switch sides. The combination changes the spread in an election and often the outcome of the election.

The cumulative effect of Golisano winning the Independence Party primary and continuing to run negative ads against Pataki will be to make the race for governor closer by lowering Republican and conservative voter turnout. Golisano will also increase the fundraising capacity of McCall and increase the turnout among traditional Democratic voters who have in the past skipped elections when there were no genuinely contested races.