Joseph Mercurio on "McCall Wins Primary: Can the Democrats Win as Easily in November?"

Can the Democrats Win as Easily in November?

"It is an ugly city, a dirty city. Its climate is a scandal. Its politics are used to frighten children. Its traffic is madness. Its competition is murderous. But there is one thing about it -- once you have lived in New York and it has become your home, no other place is good enough." John Steinbeck was correct when he wrote it. Now even the most hardened critics of the city are in awe and respect of its people and its history.

There has been a profound change in the voters in New York State and especially in New York City since 9/11. "E Pluribus Unum" -- out of many, one -- has never been truer. We are a city and state of diversity, but the electorate now more than ever wants political leaders who bring us together.

What needs to be done in government is in some ways obvious to voters. Voters want elected officials to stop partisan rancor, stop taking the same issues to the next election as a wedge to separate us into camps and get on with governing. Voters want elected officials who come together and make decisions in the public interest.

The elections locally and nationally are to an extent driven by that change. Voters agree with the President and Republicans on terrorism, security and perhaps still on foreign policy, but they pretty much agree with the Democrats on everything else.

To be ahead in New York State, the Governor triangulated Democratic issues. He has not positioned himself as a figure protecting us from the opposition party and their "evil ways", something candidates and parties often do in elections. He is operating as a thoughtful incumbent who has been diligently getting the job done, someone who understands the people of his state.

His campaign has pointed to how he has been getting the job done for the good of the people in a very difficult time and even thanked the electorate in a TV spot for letting him do just that. Democratic primary voters feel the same way other voters do. Andrew Cuomo's failure to understand this change in sentiment led to the enormous spread that developed in the Democratic Primary. He dropped out knowing H. Carl McCall was likely to get two-thirds of the vote on Primary Day.

Part of the reason for McCall's staggering success is that he looks like a thoughtful long-term incumbent who understands what the electorate needs and how to solve their problems. He looks like a public figure willing to work with all sides and come up with the best solution rather than "taking the issue." Solve problems rather than fight partisan battles that do not move us forward.

Andrew Cuomo's dropping out of active campaigning and his throwing support behind his opponent, McCall, have changed the dynamic of the election. But for George Pataki to lose the election, there will have to be a perfect storm of events. One of the key ingredients is that the black vote in November would have to be solidly behind the Democratic nominee and turn out in large numbers.

With McCall coming out of Labor Day with such broad support means that African-American voters will have a favorite son in the race for governor for the first time in New York. This will increase turnout in that community well beyond the historical numbers and that vote will be solidly for the Democrat.

For the Democrats to win they need more. Having McCall on the Liberal Party line would be something worth working toward. But as Sidney Greenstreet told Humphrey Bogart in the Maltese Falcon, in the heat of action men often forget where their interest lies.

The Democrats will have to be careful when running competitive advertising. Only things that are true and relevant will have a chance this year. And any attack must ring a responsive cord in the voters' minds.

Democrats might do better by pointing to the successes of the current administration. The best things that happened came out of traditional Democratic ideas and were accomplished with the help of Democrats. If the Governor is appreciated and successful for running the state like a Democrat, imagine how well a thoughtful Democrat with vast experience and a history of putting the public interest ahead of partisanship can get that same job done.