Cuomo Drops Out
By Joseph Mercurio
[This column appeared in The New York Sun on September 4, 2002.]
Andrew Cuomo, scion of former governor Mario Cuomo, Cabinet Secretary to former President William Jefferson Clinton, and married to the Kennedy clan looked at first like he had the perfect rationale in the governor's race.
He had youth, talent, aggressiveness, name recognition, a great résumé, and the ability to raise large sums of money to make his case -- but he had never been a candidate for elective office. And there was another fly in the ointment: H. Carl McCall. Candidates are always judged relative to their opponents. In many ways Mr. Cuomo never had a chance.
Over the last twenty years, Mr. McCall has been one of the largest vote getters in the state. His support comes from every part of the state and from a broad range of constituencies. His résumé is outstanding: State Senator, banker, United Nations ambassador, Board of Education president, and Comptroller of the State of New York. And he has the laid-back, experienced demeanor of an incumbent with a solid record -- just what voters were looking for post-9/11.
Mr. Cuomo came into the race with a great deal of energy and the look of a big money campaign. His father's name gave him a boost in recognition and his Clinton and Kennedy associations were enticing. At first he raised more money than McCall and was the favorite in the public polls.
But early public polls test registered voters, using random number calls and past election turnout proportions. The process underestimates the strength of a minority candidate running against a very well known name. It also did not account for the extra turnout a black candidate would get as a favorite son who could become the first African-American governor of New York.
Private polls by candidates showed a different story. McCall was a well-liked elected official. Voters were aware of his accomplishments, they voted for him in the past and they were comfortable with a man of his experience rising to be governor. These polls also adequately adjusted for turnout and started with samples of actual voters. These early polls were close but predicted a McCall win.
Mr. McCall who had worked with many elected public and party officials in the various positions he held, also had the support of large numbers of state leaders -- people who could actually move votes to him and also had delegates at the State Democratic Party convention.
Then Mr. Cuomo made a disastrous mistake. He casually, on a bus ride, called into question Pataki's leadership in the immediate aftermath of the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center. Mayor Giuliani came to the Governor's defense to set the record straight, as did the leaders of the victim's families. Instead of backing off and apologizing for a misstep, Mr. Cuomo said it was calculated and the beginning of a sweeping assault on the leadership of the governor.
Mr. Cuomo's negatives grew, his fundraising lead declined, and he was forced to do an early television campaign to erase the damage. It compromised him going into his next big test. By the time the Democratic convention was coming around, insiders questioned his public poll lead and wondered if his candidacy would cause his party to fracture with black voters who might wonder why they were denied a shot at the governor's mansion -- like Hispanics felt they were denied in the mayoral race.
The Democrats could not afford to run without the dependable black vote in the fall. But they were willing to let a substantial figure like Mr. Cuomo be a challenger in September. Mr. Cuomo was to get his place on the ballot at the convention. Not wanting to look weak, however, Mr. Cuomo opted out of the party convention, crying boss control, and took his case to the voters in an made-for-press, photo-op grassroots campaign. Instead of looking like a reformer he looked like he could not work with the elected leadership of his party. He lost more support and his fundraising dropped even further.
All year Mr. McCall had been gaining. Now it was the moment when public polls switched to likely voters instead of registered voters. All at once the public polls agreed with the private campaign polls. Mr. McCall was now ahead and had a better image than Mr. Cuomo.
Cuomo was told to go negative by his handlers in order to win the primary. But he would not have won the primary if he went negative against Mr. McCall who is a well-liked figure. Cuomo's negatives were too high to go on the attack and not have the negative rub off on him. Time and time again when he went negative, previously in the campaign, it worked against him.
Mr. Cuomo, before his withdrawal, was down 22 points and sinking like a stone. He did not have enough money or a story to tell that would be better than Mr. McCall's. He was destined to go down in a substantial loss. In a move designed to save himself for a future race, he decided to drop out of the race and throw his support to Mr. McCall.
Mr. McCall will save some money in the primary that he can use in the general election, but he will be denied the impressive victory his achievement deserved and his campaign could have used as a stepping off point.
