Joseph Mercurio on "Dog Days of Summer: More is Happening Than Meets the Eye"

More is Happening Than Meets the Eye

Some "googoo" (good government) types are saying it is inappropriate to discuss city charter and election reform in August. This is silly. Whoever said that nothing happens in politics during August is just wrong.

Some states have their federal primaries this month. Just this week, incumbent Congressmembers Bob Barr, a Republican leader in the Clinton impeachment effort in the House, and Cynthia A. McKinney, a Democrat who was opposed by a strong supporter of Israel, were both defeated in their states' August primaries.

Right here in New York we had a substantial amount of activity, much the result of local petition challenges knocking candidates off the ballot. New York State is the most litigious state when it comes to elections. Our local political culture regards it as better to nip a challenge in the bud than to give the electorate a choice.

In the short run, petition challenging protects some incumbents and organization candidates, but in the long run it weakens party loyalty and ticket voting in general elections. The legislature should change the system to one used in other states, where candidates are qualified by posting a bond, which they lose if they do not run.

Probably the least noticed contested race is the Democratic primary for state Comptroller. Candidate Alan Hevesi, who has run successful for the state Assembly and for city Comptroller, is pitted against a candidate new to running for office -- Bill Mulrow.

Conventional wisdom would say the voters will go with the candidate they know better, they have voted for before, and who has the right experience. More than half the electorate has voted for Hevesi and he has served as city Comptroller.

In the 32 day prior to the election filing with the State Board of Elections, Hevesi had $2,430,839 cash on hand while the wealthy Mulrow listed $2,005,438. The newcomer will have to spend more in the end than Hevesi to make up for Hevesi's inherent advantage.

Turnout will be a factor. Some say the effect of 9/11 will be lower turnout. This, conventional wisdom says, will be worse in the city than upstate, worse among white voters than among minorities, which will cut into Hevesi's vote and help Mulrow. But the newcomer has a great deal of ground to make up and the low turnout might not be enough to make it a fair fight. In the end it will come down to Mulrow having enough money to communicate a strong message in a very expensive state.

This turnout assumption, if true, can add to H. Carl McCall's lead over Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary for Governor. Most public and private polling gives McCall the edge without this factor.

The gubernatorial primaries are making the fall outcome in that race unpredictable. Inexplicably Golisano has not filed petitions for a new independent party, which would have assured him a place on the November ballot.

Golisano also lost his strategic opportunity to disrupt the Conservative Party primary when his hand-picked candidate for Lieutenant Governor literally high-tailed it out of the state on charges of double voting.

Golisano, one of the original founders of the Independence Party, is pitted against Governor George Pataki in that party primary. The Governor received more votes in the convention but this does not speak to either candidate's strength with primary voters. Votes in primaries are not distributed in the same proportion regionally as they are among all voters. Voters are enrolled in parties based on local support for that party or its key regional candidates.

There is a concentration of party strength in the greater Rochester area where Golisano has his local base. This gives an automatic advantage to Golisano in a statewide race, especial since he was that party's standard barer and received so many party votes in past elections.

Team Pataki poured a great deal of organizational effort into a voter registration campaign to enroll new members into the Independence Party in New York City where Pataki is strong. They also rolled out a Giuliani opposition-candidate killer commercial in August to help ensure a victory.

Either Roger Stone, head of Team Golisano, is brilliant and Golisano will win because of upstate strength and a huge negative campaign or Team Pataki was wisely cautious and wins on the basis of his broad-based support and positive media. My money is on the latter.