Joseph Mercurio on "McCall Leads Cuomo: The Campaign is Moving Toward a Big McCall Win"

The Campaign is Moving Toward a Big McCall Win

There has not been a public university poll in the New York governor's race since the late-May Marist College polls, and the last poll from Quinnipiac University on July 2. Some political junkies were going into poll withdrawal, but the wait was worth it. The new Q-poll switched to a screen for likely voters, which makes all the difference in the world.

The first public measure from Quinnipiac of likely voters in the Democratic Primary on September 10 has H. Carl McCall with a solid 47% to 31% lead over Andrew Cuomo. This represents a significant 16-point lead at this point in the primary. Another 21% are undecided.

Most public polls call random phone numbers and ask the respondent a series of questions that qualify them to be interviewed and included in the poll results. Early on in a campaign these types of polls only screen for voter registration. Unfortunately, only a small portion of people who are registered to vote turn out in the primary election, so this type of screen may give an indication of what voters think, but it does not give a clear read on the people who are going to show up in the primary.

When one looks beyond what is called in the trade the "money question" -- in this case, "If the Democratic primary for Governor were being held today, would you vote for H. Carl McCall or Andrew Cuomo?" -- it is apparent that McCall's edge is solid and likely to grow.

Likely voters who picked a candidate were asked, "Are you very sure about voting for (candidate choice) or might you change your mind before the primary?" By an 11-point margin voters with a choice were intending to stick with McCall. The Comptroller's vote in the governor's race is a more committed.

The favorable/unfavorable rating reinforces the basic impression that McCall is ahead and that it is likely to stay that way. McCall's favorable is 42% and his unfavorable is only 3% -- a net positive of 39. Cuomo's rating is 32% favorable and 14% unfavorable for a net of only 18. McCall's 21-point net positive lead is reflected in his "vote for" advantage.

The likely voters also think Comptroller McCall has the "right kind of experience to be Governor of New York." By a margin of 61% to 11%, likely voters think Carl has the right background, a winning net 50; and when you look at just white voters that number is 62-10. The recognition of McCall's achievement is broad-based in the electorate. He has represented all voters and large numbers of voters in past election have supported him.

Andrew Cuomo, who has not run for office statewide before, is at a disadvantage. Likely voters think he has the "right kind of experience" by 45% to 31% a net of only 14. Cuomo never made the case for why he was the better candidate in the primary and why he was better positioned to beat George Pataki.

This data rings true. Political consultants who have access to private polling have been saying for some time that McCall was actually ahead though the early public poll gave Cuomo an advantage. In fact this poll probably understates McCall's strength.

First, McCall does better among people who are likely to show up in the Democratic Party primary. This poll has a large 21% undecided rate among likely voters, which often means there is room for the non-incumbent to grow -- but not here. Because the 9/11 anniversary is a news distraction, and because Pataki has had a good lead, the primary is likely to be a low turnout election. This will favor McCall who does better with core Democratic constituencies.

Second, this poll still understates McCall's support in the black community and it does not adequately reflect the extra turnout among blacks for their favorite-son candidate. This factor should not be underestimated. Even though McCall has always enjoyed broad support among various categories of white voters, he will get a natural boost from black voters because he may become the first African-American governor of New York.

Surprisingly money is not likely to change the outcome of the race. From the beginning, pundits thought Andrew Cuomo -- because his father Mario was Governor, because he is married to the Kennedy clan, and because he was a Clinton cabinet secretary -- would so far outpace McCall on money that he would overcome Carl's natural advantages.

Candidates running in the September primary filed detailed financial reports in January, July, and recently in the 32-day period prior to the Primary. Andrew Cuomo in these reports has spent a total of $5,776,301 to McCall's $3,471,091, a staggering $2,305,210 more than his opponent and he is still 16 points behind.

Going into the last phase of the campaign, their fundraising is about equal, and Cuomo has only a slight lead in cash on hand. Last year Cuomo was the big fundraiser, outstripping McCall two to one. It looked like an uphill fight for warhorse vote-getter H. Carl McCall. By mid-year, Cuomo's lead in fundraising tightened to three to two, and in the last filling, even before McCall moved ahead in the polls, the cash receipts evened out.

Cuomo was forced to air early media to correct campaign faults and image problems. Now he has less for the end game when he needs money to overcome the important fact that large numbers of New Yorkers have already pulled the lever for McCall in past elections.