Politics Shuts Down
Actually Many More Races Are Up For Grabs Than Predicted
By Joseph Mercurio
August 8, 2002
For most people politics shuts down in August. Candidates who are not defending petition challenges, a uniquely New York experience, are getting ready for an all-out post Labor Day sprint to Primary Day. A month's worth of campaigning will be packed into seven days.
How do you campaign before the one year anniversary of the terrorist attack? Can you go negative? Will enough voters care to show up in the primaries?
Others with contested general elections are trying to get noticed in the memorial events without crossing lines of propriety. They also have to figure out when to start campaigning and how partisan they can be after the memorial.
Voters are concerned about their personal security as much now, from terrorists, as they were from the anonymous random violence that grew in the 1980s. The direction of the economy, and lack of moral leadership have become pressing concerns. Job and income security are rising as issues. It is becoming a dangerous environment for incumbents, especially for those who have been active in creating partisan gridlock.
The winning message is optimism, and pulling us all together to make the future safe and secure both physically and economically -- a better quality of life than we are slipping into, combined with saying, "I have not been part of the partisan problem and I'm going to get the job done."
True and relevant comparative attack campaigning is acceptable, but a candidate who makes a mean-spirited smear will be in for more trouble than the damage they hoped to inflict.
If voters are given real choices between candidates they will come out to vote for candidates with records of achievement and optimism. Party, incumbency, religion and ethnicity will still be factors, but issues and accomplishment will trump them in contested elections where the combatants have enough money for genuine communication.
Voters must view candidates as people like themselves who have the same growing fears but are willing to lead in the bipartisan spirit that gets the job done. Incumbents who have grown used to taking a wedge issue to voters year after year rather than solving the problem may be in for a surprise. Voters want solutions not partisan wrangling.
Locally there are so few races that are genuinely contested that it is difficult to give good examples. Petition challenging has gone so far that utterly unbeatable incumbents are dispensing with nominal opponents rather than having a race that makes them answer to reporter, editorial and voter questions.
A WABC TV poll conducted by Survey USA has McCall surging ahead of Cuomo 47% to 39% in the primary. The Hispanic Federation poll of Latino voters has Catholic Andrew Cuomo ahead of H. Carl McCall in the primary, but George Pataki, who invested much political capitol, ahead in the General Election among those voters, but with sizable undecideds in both races.
There is big news in New Jersey's US Senate race. The once safe seat for Democratic incumbent Senator Robert Torricelli is now a toss-up on most handicappers' scratch sheets. In the latest poll from Quinnipiac University, newcomer Republican challenger Douglas Forrester is in a dead heat with the incumbent, 37-37 with 19 percent undecided.
The Jersey race is complicated by an ethics investigation involving the incumbent, but the mood of the electorate, economic fear, breakdown of moral leadership, and personal security are clearly in the background. A few months ago an incumbent like Torricelli was invulnerable. Today many House and Senate seats, as well as state executive mansions that seemed uncontested are in genuine fights, and many are moving into the "toss-up" category. Others moved from "solid" to only "leaning" to one party or the other.
Will we have contested elections after all? Can a perfect storm hit the Northeast and make the race for governor in New York contested? More later.
