Joseph Mercurio on "Lest the Governor's Race End Before the General Election Begins"

Lest the Governor's Race End Before the General Election Begins

(This Op-Ed column appeared in The New York Sun 7/23/02.)

The Democratic Party brought together gubernatorial candidates H. Carl McCall and Andrew Cuomo for a unity rally earlier this week. The need for such a rally pointed to a potential problem, though it is likely that the party will rally behind whichever candidate wins the primary. But can the candidate of even a unified Democratic Party beat a popular and well-financed incumbent governor?

The worst year for Republicans was the gubernatorial race in 1990. The Conservative Party ran its own candidate, Herbert London. Combined, the Conservatives and the Republicans mustered only 39% of the statewide vote with the Republican candidate Pierre Rinfret -- who did not spend much money -- receiving only 20%.

The 1990 election indicates that the base vote for a Republican-Conservative coalition candidate is 39%, which is about 10 points better than the combined voter enrollment for those parties. There are 5,192,717 New York Democrats, making 47% of the state's registered voters, against only 3,114,972 Republicans, or 28% of registered voters. This works against the Governor.

George Pataki has a personal rating of 47% favorable and 12% unfavorable in the last Quinnipiac poll--a net 35% positive. This is just under the Republican-Conservative base vote number. This rating has declined five points since May. Some analysts say Mr. Pataki's high "vote for" number (that is, how many polled voters would presently select him in a head-to-head match-up with either Mr. McCall or Mr. Cuomo -- presently he holds leads of around 30 points over both Democrats) will not hold up given his relatively low personal favorable ratings.

Team Pataki has been running a textbook campaign of reaching out to normally Democratic constituencies and triangulating Democratic issues, and the Governor has done a reasonably good job at running the state. As a result Mr. Pataki's job approval rating is currently running 66% "approval" and 18% "disapproval," for a net positive of 48%.

His net approval is below the 50% mark but substantial enough to make his "vote for" number, in early July, 55% in a two-way race against either Mr. McCall or Mr. Cuomo and 53% in a three-way race. His "vote for" number is midway between his positive job approval and his favorable number.

Mr. Pataki, however, is not really being matched up against his Democratic opponents. After the Primary, when public polls begin to test likely voters instead of merely registered voters, the spread will tighten. When the Democrats unify around one candidate and the focus becomes clearer, the Democratic base vote will begin to come home. At the same time, billionaire businessman Thomas Golisano's well-financed campaign will poach more votes from Mr. Pataki than from his Democratic challenger.

For the Democrats to win, however, they also need voters -- who have up until now said that state was going in the right direction -- to become less optimistic. The exposure of corporate wrongdoing resulting from "infectious greed," to quote Alan Greenspan, has caused investor confidence to tumble and the stock market with it.

Already in this week's Gallup Poll, economic confidence is down to 28% excellent/good and 71% fair/poor-- the mirror image of what it was two years ago. This has to be disquieting for both the President and Republican governors. For incumbents to get reelected easily, the electorate must believe things are moving in the right direction.

In Republican strongholds upstate, economic conditions have been so bad that communities have lost substantial population even though the Governor keeps doing things to improve local economies. In Democratic New York City, the population had been increasing in recent years because the city has been a strong economic engine. But since September 11, joblessness in the city has increased dramatically and immigration is down 30%.

Historically, voters believe that Republicans are close to big business, and if corporate heads exploit the public, it must be the fault of Republicans, particularly if jobs are involved. Mr. Pataki is an optimistic candidate who has in the past convinced voters that things are getting better because he is governor. In the current climate this will become an increasingly difficult sell.

The Democratic candidate will have to play off the historic public image that Democrats are better at creating jobs and higher pay -- much like Daniel Patrick Monahan did in his successful race to unseat incumbent Republican Senator James Buckley in 1976.

If Mr. McCall wins the Democratic primary, as most analysts believe will happen, the Democrats must use the fact that he would be the first African-American governor to turn out an unprecedented number of black voters, and do so without offending the white ethnic voters who have voted for him in large numbers.

If Andrew Cuomo is still on the Liberal Party line after the primary, some voters will vote for him. Even Alan Hevesi received 8,027 votes on the Liberal line in the last mayoral race, in which 35,489 votes separated the Democrat and the Republican -- equal to 23% of the spread. Statewide, the Liberals will get more than 50,000 votes -- votes the Democrats need.

In recent years some black Democratic leaders have been feuding with the Liberal Party's leadership. The smart play for them this year will be to replace Mr. Cuomo with Mr. McCall on the Liberal Party line. If not, the Liberal leadership will run Mr. Cuomo in the General Election, or they might run Mr. Golisano, or even Mr. Pataki. In any event, it will cost the Democratic candidate needed votes.

Finally, the Democrats must match Mr. Pataki's optimism with a coherent positive Democratic message on education, security, health care, the environment and a woman's right to choose, all of which Mr. Pataki has adopted as his own.