Joseph Mercurio on "Post-Financial Filings: Is Pataki Still Ahead and Can It Stay That Way?"

Is Pataki Still Ahead and Can It Stay That Way?

Just when you thought the campaign for governor was frozen in place with a big lead for Governor George Pataki, and that the Democrats in the state and nationally were in disarray and looking for an issue that can move vote . . . the whole world changes.

First off, there are Washington Democrats trying to nationalize every election over corporate executive misconduct and big business's current lean toward "infectious greed" -- to quote Alan Greenspan. To protect incumbents, legislation is passing in areas of business reform that would have been 'pie in the sky' just a few weeks ago.

Then in New York there is the campaign finance filing of Tom Golisano. He put $50 million of his own money into his campaign coffers to prove to skeptical cognoscenti, who have been dismissing him, that he means business in his race for New York State governor against Pataki and the Democrats. It's a nice week to cash out of the market and 50 million with an "m" is serious money, even in New York State.

Pataki is still 30 points ahead of each of the Democrats. And in public polling Golisano is taking as much away from the Democrats as from the Governor. There are hidden factors, however, that indicate that ultimately Golisano will take more votes away from Pataki. Not the least of which is Golisano's media campaign, which seems to be directed at suppressing Pataki's voter turnout and increasing Golisano's own strength with more conservative portions of the electorate.

Andrew Cuomo had a bad time a few weeks ago caused by his major league gaff about Pataki's leadership on 9/11, followed by his failure to come out of the Democratic state party convention with a place on the ballot. This caused a serious dip in his poll numbers and forced him to use scarce dollars to fund a media campaign to correct his image problem.

Image corrected, at a cost, his numbers indeed went up. But more damage was done than anyone expected. The fund raising capacity of his campaign was seriously jeopardized. Successful candidates normally snowball donations with numbers going up each week as the campaign progresses. And they generally do better when they are on TV. Cuomo was on TV, but in his last financial filling his 'money raised' declined over the previous period.

Yes he did raise more than McCall, who needs to go back to sound bite school for the way he was lowering expectations on fundraising, but Carl has successfully run statewide before. Voters have pulled McCall's lever and, as a result, he needs less money to get to the same level of voter attention as Andrew. And as of the last filling, McCall has more cash on hand.

Because of his money, image, and his lock on the black vote, McCall is still the favorite in the Democratic primary -- despite Cuomo's lead.

In a McCall-Pataki-Golisano three way race we are probably looking, based on where we are now in the polls, the cash on hand and issues positing, at a finish that has the Governor winning with less than 50% of the vote statewide and a spread of less than 10% against the Democrat.

The race could become competitive if something unusual were to happen, like: Golisano seriously reducing turnout upstate and picking up a bigger-than-expected chunk of the conservative turnout statewide; or votes on the Conservative Party line not being counted with the Republican votes because of a technicality, coupled with a serious increase in the turnout of black voters because of the opportunity to elect the first black governor of New York.

For the Democrats things are not over. And for Team Pataki it would be wise to be on its toes scrounging for every vote and raising every dollar possible. While they must be glad that they have taken in more than any governor in New York history, they must already be diverting some of it to upstate media to counter the independent candidate. That would mean less money for targeting Jewish and Catholic white ethnic voters in the boroughs -- important groups that cannot be neglected.

Pataki also must keep increasing his vote among women throughout the state to compensate for Golisano's strength with men. If the Governor should falter with women he could be in trouble. "It ain't over till the fat lady sings," as the old saying goes.