Joseph Mercurio on "Can Pataki Lose? Not an Easy Lift for Democrats but More Possible Than the Polls Say."

Not an Easy Lift for Democrats but More Possible Than the Polls Say

Since 9/11 incumbents have been doing better than expected. The constant news of terrorism, the memorial services of various kinds, as well as the debate over reorganizing the government reaction, have helped keep incumbents high in the polls, particularly in New York State.

Governor George Pataki has been 25 to 30 points ahead of his opponents in public polls through the last nine months -- and recently he has been doing better. Can this hold up for the remainder of the campaign?

Nationally, for President George W. Bush and generic Republican candidates, there has been some erosion of support. And only 43% of voters said they planned to vote to reelect Bush in the last Battleground poll. The Democrats have been picking up among women, suburban voters, African-Americans, Democrats, union households and Northeasterners.

On issues the Democrats nationally are polling better on the environment, health care, Social Security, and jobs. Republicans poll better on cutting government waste, taxes, terrorism and foreign policy. Education nationally has been largely neutralized, but may swing Republican.

Conventional wisdom and history say that Pataki's lead will close, and even Team Pataki is sensible enough to agree. It is hard to imagine how a lead of 30 points will close enough in so short a period. It is of course not unprecedented for a lead of that size to evaporate.

There are several ways that this can happen. In June we already see traditional Democratic constituencies coming home nationally. This is also happening in New York. This trend among suburban voters, where Pataki is particularly strong, could be a problem.

Progressive Nader voters are likely in this year's election to see the Democratic Party as their home, with few going to the Green Party candidate. And some disaffected conservatives could go to Galisano rather than the Republican.

Team Galisano and the Democratic Joint Campaign attack ads against the governor will take a toll. Galisano will go after conservative voter concerns with the size of government, taxes and waste. And both will talk about the lack of economic development and, for Democrats, the lack of jobs over the past eight years in upstate communities and more recently in New York City.

Conceivably, even if Galisano does not win his challenge in the Independence Party or the Conservative Party for himself, he might have some luck in winning at least one of those primaries for a Lieutenant Governor candidate. In New York State the Governor and Lieutenant Governor candidates run separately in the Primary, but together in the General Election.

If Pataki's Republican Lieutenant Governor does not also win the Conservative Party Primary, for example, that party's votes in thge General Election would not be counted for Pataki even if he won that primary for himself. This could be a serious blow. In the last election Pataki received 348,727 votes on the Conservative line, 14% of his total vote.

If a woman's right to choose becomes a major issue in the General Election, which it probably will in the Comptroller race, then there will be an alteration in who turns out on election day. More younger, liberal, working, pro-choice women will mean more votes for the Democrat running for Governor.

If Carl McCall wins the Democratic Primary by a bigger margin than expected a bandwagon momentum could start. For the last few years there has been an underestimate in African-American voter turnout in public polls. This will be important if McCall wins. When favorite son candidacies have been involved those underestimated have been upwards of 10 points.

Pataki is in good shape but his team must be vigilant to win. He has been running an effective campaign, but in recent years the Democrats, who have become adept at joint campaigns, have picked up a US Senate seat and an Attorney General seat from the Republicans, and maintained an open US Senate seat and an incumbent Comptroller.

Triangulation has been an effective tool for the Governor. While Democrats elsewhere have an advantage on the environment and health care, Pataki has dominated in these issue areas. Even on education, where Republicans are gaining ground nationally, he for now seems to be doing even better.

Democrats will have to come together, increase core turnout and try new approaches on their traditional issues in order to get close enough to win. Journalists and voters may be in for a surprise at how close they do get and how quickly it could change.