The Battleground Poll
Can Republicans Hold the Lead They Had in January?
By Joseph Mercurio
June 27, 2002
The national Battleground Poll, fielded by Democrat Celinda Lake and Republican Ed Goeas, is out for June 2002. The poll interviews likely voters nationally and tests them on issues and party leanings. A comparison can now be made of the shift in public opinion over the last six months, and we can see who is benefiting by the current political environment.
Though President George W. Bush continues to have an historically high approval rating, his approval has fallen to 74% from January's high of 85%. Moreover, only 43% of likely voters say they will definitely vote to reelect Bush. His approval rating has dropped heaviest among Democrats (21 points), suburbanites and blacks (each 17 points), but only 3 points among Hispanics. And Democrats now have a 4-point lead on the generic ballot question.
Voters by a 5-point margin think the Republicans can do a better job of handling the issue that most concerns them individually. The economy continues to be a problem for most voters even as they feel by a margin of four-to-one that their family's personal economic position will be better next year. Republicans continue to rate better than Democrats on all economic issues, an average 11-point lead, except for job creation.
Though terrorism has been declining as an issue, it spikes significantly when events occur. It will be interesting to see how the 9/11 anniversary or a "dirty bomb" type headline changes the debate in particular weeks before the election.
Bush and the Republican Party both score big with voter confidence on safeguarding against terrorism: Bush 69 to Democratic Congress 16, and Republican Party 54 to Democratic Party 19. This holds for handling foreign affairs, Bush 67 to Democratic Congress 24, and Republican Party 53 to Democratic Party 31; and holding the line on taxes, Bush 58 to Democratic Congress 31, and Republican Party 54 to Democratic Party 29.
The Democratic Congress holds strong on the party's traditional issues like protecting the environment, Democratic Congress 59 to Bush 30, and Democratic Party 62 to Republican Party 22. And for improving the health care system, Democratic Congress 46 to Bush 35, and Democratic Party 51 to Republican Party 28; and strengthening Social Security, Democratic Congress 46 to Bush 37, and Democratic Party 48 to Republican Party 32.
Education has swung slightly to the Republicans, but is a mixed issue. On confidence in improving education, it is Bush 47 to Democratic Congress 38, and Democratic Party 41 to Republican Party 38.
If the Democrats can control the issue debate they can pick up seats. The post 9/11 lean to incumbents, the continuing terrorism threat and the anniversary of events can make this difficult. Which voters turn out will be important. Democrats have their work cut out for themselves in this area. Right now Republicans have the lead on who intends to vote; traditional Republican constituencies are now more likely to vote than Democratic constituencies, but Democrats have the organizational edge to change this turnout projection.
Democrats will try to distance local Republicans from the President on issues and Republicans will fall for it at their peril. The Democrats will also try to tag Republicans as too close to big business interests who they allowed to run amuck. Voters think Republicans are too tied to wealth. This will be a tough sell as scandals emerge and Republican federal prosecutors bring charges against corporate abusers.
Voters want prescription drug benefits, Social Security reform, pension reform and additional education funding. Candidates will be well advised to give the voters what they want on these issues and Republicans will have to triangulate to win.
Voters also lean to wanting divided government. In open seats even where Bush is strong this will help Democrats. If partisan conflicts result in gridlock, the voters will tend to blame the Republicans for the inaction. Voters want less partisanship and progress on the issues that they are concerned with, but no matter who causes the roadblock Republicans will suffer.
It still looks, at this time, like there will be little likelihood of a significant shift in the Congressional strength of either party. Certainly the big gains the party which loses the White House (in this case the Democrats) normally gets will not be there, but the Republican advantage has diminished in the last six months. If Democrats control the issue agenda and stay on message they can advance.
Will Bush lead his party to pick up seats in the fall because he keeps the focus on economic gains and terrorism? Can the Democrats break through the headlines and talk with voters about their big issues: environment, Social Security and health care? Will seniors, women and blacks swing the outcome to the Democrats? More later.
